




This is the summer of the heat waves in the Northern hemisphere, and it is far from over as the winter in the Southern hemisphere is yet to begin. Every year heat wave seems to intensify, from Japan declaring 2018 heatwave as disaster to several countries banning hosepipe for gardening in order to conserve water.
The intensifying heatwaves and the resultant change in rainfall also have geo-political implications. Droughts are considered to be the main reason for the civil war in Sudan. The rise of Boko Haram in Nigeria has been facilitated by the change in rainfall patterns, failing crops, and the drying up of Chad lake have been cited the main reason for its existence and continued survival.

Though the effect of change in precipitation pattern on political landscape is not entirely new. In an intriguing paper published in 2018 in Economic Letters, Cornelius Christian of Brock University and Liam Elbourne of St Francis Xavier University identify a strong association between rainfall patterns and associated military coup abrogating the rule of the emperor and with a relatively high probability the head of the emperor.
The paper relies on three historical facts to make this argument:
- The Roman economy was largely agricultural, depending on rainfed agriculture.
- The bulk of the Roman army was stationed along the western frontier, and relied heavily on local food sources.
- Food transport in Ancient Rome was very slow.
The paper argues that a standard deviation fall in the rainfall (20% reduction from the average) could lead to an 11% increase in the probability of coup/assassinations. They used the data from Scarre's Chronicles of the Roman Emperors to identify when a Roman emperor had been murdered. They use the precipitation data constructed by Buentgen et. al. using precipitation sensitive Oak tree rings from the areas constituting the Western frontier of the Roman empire to create a precipitation index for the duration of the Roman empire.

Of the 82 emperors who ruled, the study finds that 25 emperors were assassinated. The Gordian dynasty (235 AD to 285 AD) was very tumultuous of the 26 emperors who ruled during this period, 14 were assassinated. The reduction in precipitation caused reduced crop yields, which in turn caused food shortages, leading to starving soldiers on the front, and would in turn lead to mutinies which ultimately resulted in the unceremonious end of the emperor. The Roman army could not store grains for more than a year, so a reduction in rainfall would lead to straining of resources in a largely agriculture dependent economy.
Hungry troops were not the only cause of the demise of emperors, this period was also marked by invasions, plague, and economic depression. The weather shock however was an important driver which until this paper came along could not be studied by using the standard techniques employed by historians. The cautionary tale from history is specially important as weather related shocks seem to be accelerating political fissures in Africa, Latin America, and shaping micro conflicts across the globe.


According to the book “How Design Makes Us Think and Feel and Do Things” by Sean Adams, designs communicate a message. It can make us feel that an object is simple to use, effective and elegant. It can convey anything from pride and anger to nostalgia.
A simple comparison to prove this would be one between a modern phone versus an old rotary phone. The sleek compact design of the modern phones invites us. It promises ease of use. On the other hand, an old rotary phone would not appeal to us now. It makes us feel like making a phone call is complicated. We have to use both hands, one to hold the receiver and the other to dial. There is also the clutter of a wire and the need of a surface to put the heavy device on.
Designers are taught certain rules which are supposed to be followed. These rules ensure that the design has the maximum effect on people. Rules such as aesthetic-usability rule talks about how an aesthetically pleasing design creates a positive response in people’s brains. It leads them to think that the design works better. Other rules such as Hick’s law talk about the complexity of choices increases the decision time of people.
These are the rules which Julia Anderson aims to integrate with economics. According to her, this integration of design and economics can cause value addition. It can increase monetary value of a product and customer satisfaction simultaneously. She also believes that simplicity is attractive. Along with that, she believes that situation like unclear navigation due to designing can cause friction costs. These are manifestations of the laws taught to designers. Sean Adams also uses these laws for explaining how different designs cause different emotion in his book.
It might be easier to see these laws at play with the example of Amazon. Amazon has come up with the concept of “frustration free packaging”. This was born due to the fact that consumers were complaining about how difficult it was to open packages. Amazon was inspired by Philips when they employed a similar strategy. Philips asked AllpakTrojan, their packagers, to use one material instead of 2. After 3 weeks, they designed a cardboard box which was tested and ready to go. It was much cheaper and more efficient as well. After following the footsteps of Philips, Amazon’s frustration free products received 73% reduction in negative consumer feedback.
This shows how something as simple as the design of the package can be made more efficient. Integrating design laws with economic concepts can benefit both producer and consumer. In fact, this concept is so effective that it has been termed ‘behavioural design’. A sub-branch of designing which used shapes to influence human behaviour.
However, the question rises, how does design affect our perception? Designers are often taught how different shapes convey different things. A research by Ursula Hess and her colleagues also backs this up. They found that people find circular shapes more pleasing to the eye. They find them friendly and kind. This is because we associate these things with objects such as knives and nails. On the other hand, more angular shapes elicit the feeling of danger. It is this perception of shapes we have which designers use to their advantage.

